This is post 3 in a series about CROX. Here are posts 1 and 2. I wanted to measure the extent of Crocs’ dominance of the rubber clog footwear category. To do this I used Jungle Scout to check the top best selling Amazon listings for the term “rubber clogs.” I took the top 19 results (that were indeed rubber clogs) on January 13, 2025 and checked their “Best Sellers Rank” (BSR) on both January of 2024 and January of 2025. We can use this BSR to estimate volume.
Here were the top 19 products I used.
My analysis found that overall sales for rubber clogs was down year over year. But Crocs’ market share increased to 95% from 90%. It dominates the category.
| Brand | Jan 2024 Market Share | Jan 2025 Market Share |
| Adidas | 1.97% | 1.63% |
| Avia | 2.20% | 0.86% |
| Beslip | 3.10% | 1.54% |
| Crocs | 90.14% | 94.96% |
| Kemisant | 0.36% | 0.32% |
| OOFOS | 2.23% | 0.70% |
| Grand Total of Unit Sales | 123366 | 96663 |
From this data I used Bruce Greenwald’s strategy to estimate brand decay. Considering that market share changes hands by 5% a year, and that Crocs has 95% market share, it would take 19 years for Crocs market share to decline to 0. A brand decay rate of 5.2%.
Jungle Scout also gave me some estimates for search volume in Amazon over the past year for some related terms.
These results show me that while the estimate for products I looked at in January decreased, search volume for the category (and the Crocs brand) is in a general uptrend. It also shows me that with 785x the search volume compared to the category Crocs is a catch-all term for rubber clogs, similar to Kleenex and Hoover. HEYDUDE does not approach this.
I think this shows that Crocs has a dominant market share, protected by consumer habit. I think there is a decent moat on amazon, as customer reviews are the number 1 rank signal. On Amazon, Crocs has by far the most reviews and a higher average rating than other brands, again something of a moat. Overall I think Crocs has a narrow moat, as customer habit is one of the weakest competitive advantages.
When I repeated the same exercise for “slip on loafers” which is HEYDUDES market, I didn’t find nearly the same dominance or moats.
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